Old guards face rebellion as Western Kenya rethinks its future

President William Ruto of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) leader Raila Odinga are walking a political tightrope in Western Kenya, as a wave of fresh parties and shifting alliances threatens to upend their once-solid grip on the region.

With the 2027 general election looming, the ground is shifting beneath their feet. New political actors, emboldened by growing calls for regional autonomy, are mounting a spirited challenge—determined to redefine Western Kenya’s place on the national stage and break free from the shadow of the two dominant political titans.

Even UDA’s merger with Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi’s Amani National Congress (ANC) has failed to stem the tide. Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya, the Deputy Party Leader of the Democratic Action Party of Kenya (DAP-K), is leading a bold charge to unite the region. Through his Tawe Movement, Natembeya is rallying Western communities to reject traditional parties and embrace a regional political force.

Other leaders, including Mumias East MP Peter Salasya and Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah—both of whom have declared presidential ambitions—are running parallel campaigns to destabilise UDA and ODM’s grip. Salasya has broken ranks with both Raila and Ruto, accusing them of marginalising the region in terms of development. Omtatah, under his National Reconstruction Alliance (NRA), is similarly vocal in calling for political renewal.

Further complicating matters, the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP), led by former UDA Secretary General Cleophas Malala, has entered the fray. Malala, now DCP Deputy Party Leader, has accused the Ruto administration of betraying both the region and the country. A recent attempt to promote the DCP in Kakamega ended in chaos, with police dispersing supporters amid tension.

DCP has also attracted defectors from UDA. Last Thursday, several UDA members officially resigned and joined DCP, citing dissatisfaction with Ruto’s leadership and accusing the UDA of lacking internal democracy and vision. Damaris Undisa, a former UDA official in Kakamega, claimed over 10,000 UDA members had defected to DCP since its launch.

Alex Khamasi, DCP’s National Coordinator, stated that UDA had shortchanged the Western region despite a power-sharing agreement with Kenya Kwanza. He vowed to popularise DCP as the new political vehicle for the region.

Meanwhile, ODM’s position is also weakening. Since celebrating its 20th anniversary in Busia earlier this year, the party has seen limited activity. Grassroots supporters have criticised Deputy Party Leader and Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi for failing to address internal wrangles and dwindling support across counties, such as Kakamega, Trans Nzoia, and Busia.

“We have sibling rivalries and supremacy battles across the region. If Osotsi doesn’t act fast, the party will lose its foothold,” said James Sikolia, an ODM delegate in Kakamega.

In Bungoma, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula is facing his own battle to sustain the relevance of Ford Kenya. Natembeya has made inroads in Wetang’ula’s territory, urging locals to abandon Ford Kenya in favour of a new, unified movement. He has also turned his focus to Vihiga, aiming to dislodge  Mudavadi as a key regional figure.

Adding to the crowded field, the Democratic National Alliance (DNA) party—led by Godfrey Kanoti and Secretary General Dr Barrack Muluka, both Mudavadi allies—aims to establish itself as a regional political platform championing local socio-economic interests.

According to analysts, the proliferation of regionally-based parties could spell the end for UDA and ODM in the Western region. Dr Muluka argues that with local parties gaining traction, it will be increasingly difficult for national parties to regain control—even through coalitions.

“If these local formations unite against ODM and UDA, they could field their own candidates and split the vote. That would mark the decline of national parties in the region,” said Muluka.

Political analyst Martin Andati agrees, noting that the narrative of betrayal is damaging ODM’s image. “Raila has long used the region’s support to serve his own interests. That realisation is causing ODM’s support to erode,” he explained.

Andati also highlighted internal party tensions, particularly between Raila and former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya. Reports suggest Oparanya feels sidelined over a promised Treasury position and may consider forming his own party.

Historically, Western has been an ODM stronghold. In the last general election, Raila garnered 955,185 votes in the region, while Ruto secured 611,475.

The March 2025 political truce between Raila and Ruto was initially seen as an opportunity for the President to gain ground in Raila’s support bases, including Western and Nyanza. However, growing discontent and the rise of locally anchored movements now threaten to undermine both their ambitions.

With the emergence of new parties, deepening internal rifts, and a mounting push for regional self-determination, Western Kenya’s political landscape is undergoing a major transformation. As 2027 approaches, the old political order faces its toughest test yet.