The World Meteorological Organization says there is an 80 percent chance of El Niño conditions developing between June and August, rising to 90 per cent thereafter.
According to UN News, the organisation warned that the climate pattern could significantly disrupt global weather systems.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the update is critical because El Niño strongly influences global climate, with impacts reaching far beyond the Pacific to affect agriculture, water resources, energy supplies, trade, supply chains and livelihoods.
Reports cited by The Guardian note that current tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are about 6°C above average, raising concerns that the developing event could intensify extreme weather impacts on vulnerable regions.
António Guterres described the situation as an urgent climate warning, saying El Niño conditions would “pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” with effects that could spread rapidly across borders.
“The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all,” Guterres said.
The WMO noted that while climate change does not increase the frequency of El Niño events, a warmer ocean and atmosphere can amplify their impacts, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, heavy rainfall and other extremes.
The 2023 to 2024 El Niño was among the strongest on record and contributed to record global temperatures in 2024, according to Saulo.
El Niño is part of the El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle, marked by warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, typically occurring every two to seven years and lasting around nine to 12 months, with even moderate events capable of triggering significant climate extremes.