Of more trips but smaller baskets: The return of 'kadogo' economy

Gone are the days when households would walk into supermarkets and stock up their monthly supplies in one major shopping trip.

Today, more consumers are making frequent visits to shops, buying fewer items each time and carefully weighing every purchase before spending.

A new consumer insights report by Worldpanel by Numerator, titled Kenya FMCG Outlook 2026, shows that Kenyan households are not abandoning shopping despite economic pressures.

Instead, they are becoming more deliberate, strategic and value-conscious in how they spend — a shift from "pantry loading," where consumers bought larger quantities at once, to more frequent trips focused on immediate needs.

The report draws on a purchase panel that has tracked Kenyan households continuously since 2012 and now covers more than seven million households.

According to Osato Igbinadolor, Country Manager for East Africa at Worldpanel by Numerator, the change is not simply a reaction to inflation but reflects an evolution in consumer behaviour.

"Consumers have changed. They are redefining value, shaping the channels they buy from, broadening their choices and rewriting the rules of value, control and choice," he says.

The numbers say that frequency of purchase, which had fallen 5.8 per cent in the year to December 2023 and was still down 0.2 per cent by December 2024, swung to growth of 6.2 per cent by December 2025.

Average spend per trip followed the opposite arc up 5.7 per cent in 2023, down 3.3 per cent in 2024, then up 4.5 per cent in 2025 while units bought per trip stayed comparatively flat, moving from a 1.4 per cent decline to a 1.2 per cent gain.

Shoppers are visiting more often and spending a little more per visit, but still not loading up baskets the way they once did.

"Consumers are adapting rather than retreating. They are saying, 'I cannot control the economy, but I can control how I spend my money,'" Igbinadolor says.

"It is not about consumers having more disposable income. It is about how they deploy the income they have. For example, instead of spending all your money buying one large pack, you may decide to buy a smaller pack and use the remaining money on other essential household needs."

The skyrocketing cost of commodities has reduced major outlets to the shop next door, where you pop in to buy what you need at the moment.

New insights from the Numerator report explain this phenomenon in detail, joining the dots of stagnating incomes, a rise in inflation and new taxes on Kenyans’ incomes.

“Consumers are shopping more often, planning more deliberately, and stretching every shilling. The implication is a shift from basket expansion to repeat wins at shelf,” the research says. “Frequency-led growth is increasingly youth-driven, meaning brands must align to younger shoppers – but only where they fit real, everyday life.”

Dr Patrick Muinde, an economist, says these findings are not surprising. He says this has been informed by the informal nature of employment held by most Kenyan workers.

“The nature of the economy is largely informal, which means that most people get their income on a daily or weekly basis without a predictable pattern. That means these people can only shop based on this income flow. That is part of the reason that explains the frequency,” he says.

Cognisant of how cash-strapped Kenyans are, retailers are coming up with strategies to keep customers coming. For example, some supermarkets are now stocking 500g (half kg) rice or sugar while small shops are selling branded sugar sachets that go for Sh10.

A stroll down the aisle of retail outlets also reveals how fast prices have grown post-Covid.

For example, a 150ml of Gracies yoghurt that used to go for Sh35 just recently hit Sh50. A 1.5kg of bread that was barely Sh150 before Covid now retails at Sh230 in most supermarkets.

A pack of 28 pieces of Royco cubes that came into the market about two years ago at Sh100 now goes for Sh140. This is as the 40-piece pack, that used to retail at Sh140, now goes for Sh200.

Numerator dates this shopping behaviour to 2023, during a global crisis of runaway inflation, spiked cost of living and the Russia-Ukraine war that threatened food security. This is the period the shilling was searching its way back after hitting a high of over Sh160 to the US dollar.

This is the same period a 600g loaf of bread went beyond the Sh100 mark.

A few months before, in October 2022, the country had recorded an inflation rate of 9.6 per cent beyond the threshold of 5.0+/- 2.5 per cent.

The research notes this shopping trend as behavioural maturity among Kenyan consumers, saying they have evolved from reacting, to timing, to actively regulating spend.

“What began as front-loading under uncertainty in 2023 as households pulled purchases forward to manage risk has matured into disciplined, all year -round control by 2025 – with fewer spikes and more deliberate choices,” it says.

While being viewed as discipline, it also depicts how fast prices of commodities have grown compared to real incomes, a fact that Dr Abraham Rugo, Chief Executive Bajeti Hub, pointed out during an interview with The Standard’s KTN.

“From 2020, real incomes have actually been going down. I dare you to look at your salary and see how much you could afford in 2019 and what you can do Today, and inflation factor,” he said.

Rugo explained that even when inflation does increase by a small margin, it is still growth, and if incomes do not match this surge, then the cost of accessing basic goods continues to rise.

“But salaries and real incomes are not going up. That means the money within the economy is not circulating,” he said.

The FMCG report says that in 2023, households brought purchases forward under uncertainty, spending climbing to 107 per cent of the annual average by April before crashing to 90 per cent in August.

In 2024, consumers grew more cautious, hovering near the average before a one-off spike to 108 per cent in November. By 2025, spending stayed tightly banded between 97 and 102 per cent every month — the smoothest year of the three.

"They are no longer reacting. They have gained control over their finances and are making deliberate purchases," says Igbinadolor.

That discipline is unfolding against a mixed economic backdrop. The 2026 KNBS Economic Survey shows headline inflation averaged 4.1 per cent in 2025, the lowest in five years, aided by a stronger shilling and easing oil prices; the Central Bank of Kenya also cut its benchmark lending rate from 11.25 to 9 per cent over the year.

But price pressure has since crept back, rising to 5.6 per cent in April 2026 and 6.4 per cent by June, driven largely by food up 8.6 per cent and transport up 16.1 per cent, categories that make up more than half the inflation basket.

The shilling, meanwhile, had a rare good year, appreciating 4.1 per cent against the US dollar in 2025, from an average of Sh134.82 to Sh129.30.

A firmer shilling has cushioned the cost of imported goods, even as many households still feel squeezed partly because wages have not kept pace.

Unlike in the past, when brand loyalty was stronger, shoppers are increasingly willing to experiment if another product offers better value.

Worldpanel's wallet-share data shows where the money is landing: Beauty and Personal Care took the largest slice of household FMCG spend, rising from 39.7 per cent to 40.5 per cent between the second and fourth quarters of 2025, while Beverages climbed from 22.4 to 24.4 per cent.

Home Care's share fell from 15 to 13.3 per cent and Cooking Gas from 9.8 to 8.8 per cent, households squeezing some categories to protect others.

"There is no 100 per cent loyalty to a brand. Consumers have more choices Today, and because their choices have expanded, loyalty has reduced," says Igbinadolor.

As households adjust spending habits, manufacturers and retailers are increasingly responding through smaller pack sizes, from food products to personal care items.

"If a consumer cannot afford a one-litre pack but still wants the product, manufacturers need to provide smaller options so they can continue choosing the brand," says Igbinadolor.

The trend is visible beyond FMCG too. In telecommunications, consumers are buying smaller airtime or data bundles rather than committing larger amounts at once.

Neighbourhood shops and estate supermarkets have also grown, driven by convenience — consumers can walk from home, buy what they need immediately and, in some cases, access informal credit.

"Convenience is one of the problems being solved by neighbourhood stores," says Igbinadolor.

Younger consumers are key drivers of increased shopping frequency.

With Kenya's population largely youthful, Gen Z and millennials are shaping new purchasing behaviours through digital exposure and a preference for convenience, comparing products and switching brands more readily than previous generations.

"Younger consumers have more options and are more strategic in their planning. They are the future consumers that manufacturers need to understand," says Igbinadolor.

From the report, real wages improved in 2025 for the first time in five years. Real wage is a measure of a worker's income against inflation.

A growth in real wages means an increase in your purchasing power; a drop means a struggle in affording what you once could afford.

The report says in 2025, the real average earnings per employee reached Sh678,800, an increase from Sh665,400 in 2024.

The private sector experienced a growth of 3.9 per cent, with earnings rising to Sh716,100, while the public sector experienced a decline of 2.2 per cent, bringing the real average earnings down to Sh600,600 during the same period.

“Real average earnings depicted a positive increase of 2.0 per cent in 2025, in contrast to a decline of 0.3 per cent recorded in 2024,” the report says.

The report, which contains data as far as 2021, shows that since then, real average earnings for Kenyans has been dropping from Sh718,735 to Sh696,816 in 2022, Sh667,285 in 2023 and 665,418 in 2025 before improving to Sh678,795 in 2025.

“Sometimes, if wages do not increase to match inflation, or if they do not grow given a stagnation of economic growth, it means companies are not able to increase salaries to catch up with inflation. This could lead to an erosion of purchasing power among the middle class,” says Muinde.