How Azimio protests pose threat to Ruto's rising status in Africa

President William Ruto may be seeking unity among African countries and reigniting the Pan-African dream but how will the never-ending opposition protests impact on him among his peers on the continent?

The President has so far visited 12 African countries, receiving applause and standing ovations while espousing the need for a single currency and a free trade market that is fueled by free movement of people across the vast continent.

“The world is becoming competitive and we cannot therefore assume that we can go very far engaging the European Union, Asia or even China as we are doing currently. It is time we realised the power of numbers and unity of the African continent,” Ruto recently told the Pan-African parliament in Midrand, Johannesburg.

So how will civil disobedience protests planned by the opposition Azimio One Kenya coalition after Saba Saba celebrations this Friday impact on his fast-rising reputation as an advocate of Pan–African renaissance?

Prof Masibo Lumala of Moi University School of Information Sciences argues that all Kenyans would want to see the President providing leadership on the continent because Ruto is a great speaker who articulates topical issues well.

“He has done well on African platforms whenever he has had an opportunity to speak on global issues including climate change and global warming. But can he walk the talk back home where we need to talk to each other and have a dialogue rather than shouting at each other and creating unnecessary tensions?” asks Lumala.

Ruto is leading a crusade to build Africa for Africa in his speeches and creating a narrative among African leaders on how the 1.2 billion people on the continent can work together to solve their own issues just like the European Union.

At home, however, the President is singing a different tune, exemplified recently when he said nitawakalia ngumu (I will play hardball) in response to demands made by the opposition, which some analysts think do not augur well or resonate with the spirit of peaceful resolution of differences.

Currently, Ruto has offered to broker peace in the Sudan (offer was rejected by Sudan though) through IGAD and is also already doing the same in the Democratic Republic of Congo with former President Uhuru Kenyatta.

Analysts argue that it will not be nice for him to be the one trying to champion a peaceful Africa but at the same time be unable to find a peaceful solution to the issues facing him at home.

With the Kenya Kwanza administration’s first anniversary barely three months away, the opposition remains determined in pushing the government to deliver on its promises.

They argue that having run campaigns based on the bottom-up agenda which targeted to uplift the standards of the poor, the opposite appears to be the case because the Finance Act that proposes a double increase in fuel taxation will effectively increase the cost of production across the board.

“Once you touch on fuel the cost of production will shoot up, while over-taxation of business will lead to some of them running away to the neighbouring African countries we are speaking to which will create unemployment,” says Lumala.

He also cautioned that Kenya may not provide good leadership to other countries on the continent through punitive taxation because the few who are working will still not cater for the needs of all the Kenyans.

Lumala, however, says he fails to understand the end game of Raila and his opposition allies because so far, they have been very inconsistent in what they want to achieve from their protests. That is because they keep saying how they don’t recognise the government and then later they show signs of embracing it, which makes it difficult to know what the opposition exactly wants and the real definition of the so-called Sufuria revolution.

The President’s speeches have received some rave reviews and some of his supporters have already placed him in the same league with the likes of Africa’s early leaders such as Kwame Nkrumah, Haile Selassie, Robert Mugabe, Thomas Sankara, Julius Nyerere, Patrice Lumumba, Robert Sobukwe, and Muammar Gaddafi.

Like Ruto, all of them had a dream of solidarity and pride for Africa. However, Azimio MPs do not rate the president that high.

“Unlike Gaddaffi who fought to provide free education and free health taxation in Kenya has allegedly gone so high,” says Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi 

“He is good at talking but there is no action. Look at the Finance Act, he has just forced it on people, something great leaders cannot do especially when citizens are against it,” adds Osotsi.

But as the President engages in his Pan-African diplomacy eyebrows have also been raised about the recent happenings at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, an issue some leaders in the Azimio have also complained about.

The ministry issued a communication to all diplomatic and consular missions, UN agencies and international organisations on March 1, advising them to communicate directly with Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) without contacting it. 

Kenya’s first ambassador to the Republic of Korea Ngovi Kitau who served between 2009-2014 reacted to that directive last month, describing it as a departure from international diplomacy.

“This is a misnomer. The Vienna Convention (1961) requires that all official business with the receiving state be conducted through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Kenya’s shift has created several national security risks and embarrassments. And we must ask two pertinent questions,” wrote Kitau.

“Could such decisions made by government therefore affect his Pan African ideals especially those that are supposed to be advanced by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the socio-economic development agenda by diplomats representing the continent?”

Kitau said President Jomo Kenyatta recognised the fluid nature of international relations and diversified his portfolio of alliances and resisted external influences that could have threatened Kenya’s sovereignty.

Kenyatta is said to have found solace in value-based diplomacy, soft power and multilateralism and as a Pan-Africanist forged strong links with other newly independent African nations. That is because the intention was to exorcise the evil spirits of the 1884 Berlin Conference and achieve a Pax Africana.

According to Kitau, that now is on the course, and if the momentum is maintained, the world may witness a historic first for the African continent: the formation of a home-grown, post-Cold War, post-Pax Americana security framework. 

Defence Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale was, however, excited with Ruto’s speeches, recently stating: “Inflaming the audience under the historical structure of the Eiffel Tower with his magical words and superb presentation, President Ruto is probably the most eloquent, greatest orator we have had at the pinnacle of power.”