Gachagua or Ruto? Inside Malala's mixed signals

What began as whispers of a fallout within the opposition has erupted into an all-out proxy war, drawing in former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua and President William Ruto, as shifting local alliances.

At the heart of the storm is Cleophas Malala, the Deputy Party Leader of the Democratic Citizens Party (DCP).

The political theatre opened with heavy rumours that Malala had fallen out with his party leader and former Deputy President, Rigathi Gachagua.

In a swift counter-offensive, the former Kakamega Senator fiercely dismissed the allegations, pointing an accusing finger at State House.

Malala claimed that President William Ruto had sensed defeat by the opposition and had resorted to propaganda to achieve a "divide-and-rule" strategy ahead of the 2027 general election.

Assuring his supporters that all was well between him and his boss, Malala reminded the electorate that he was a founder of the DCP.

To prove the alliance’s strength, he announced that the United Opposition brigade, led by Gachagua, would tour the Western region to woo voters and ensure President Ruto becomes a one-term president.

True to his word, Malala successfully organised a high-profile United Opposition strategic campaign in Western Kenya. The rally saw Gachagua and other opposition principals—including Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka, Fred Matiang'i, former Attorney General Justin Muturi, and Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya converge to fiercely campaign for Malala’s gubernatorial bid.

However, the political script took an unexpected turn just days later. To unseat the incumbent Kakamega Governor Fernandes Barasa, Malala publicly declared that he needed to forge a united front with Kakamega Women Representative Elsie Muhanda and Senator Boni Khalwale.

Yet, barely a week after the United Opposition’s show of force, Malala triggered widespread speculation when he was spotted at the office of Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya.

The DCP leader, who had historically been a fierce critic of Oparanya, rained praises on the CS, prompting observers to question whether a major political realignment was underway.

CS Oparanya moved quickly to demystify the meeting and curb mounting speculation.

Taking to his official Facebook page, the former Kakamega Governor explained that the two had exchanged views on the elusive "Mulembe Nation" unity and national development.

“As we work towards a more prosperous and inclusive Kenya, constructive engagement and collaboration among leaders remain essential in advancing the interests of our people and strengthening national cohesion,” Oparanya posted.

Oparanya clarified that Malala had paid him a courtesy call, during which they also discussed the progress and potential of the Shirikiano Sacco, which was officially launched by President William Ruto last week.

According to the CS, the discussion aimed to deepen financial inclusion, promote a savings culture, and empower ordinary citizens through affordable credit across the Western region.

Malala echoed these sentiments on his own social media, striking a respectful tone that contrasted sharply with his past role as Oparanya’s oversight critic.

“CS Oparanya left an indelible mark on Kakamega County during his tenure as governor. I paid him a courtesy call today to tap into his wealth of wisdom and experience,” Malala posted.

Despite the official explanations, local political analysts believe there is more to the story than meets the eye. The plot thickened last week in Butere during a burial function, where CS Oparanya, Malala, and Ms Muhanda appeared together, sending the rumour mill into overdrive.

While Oparanya tactfully avoided local politics at the funeral, focusing instead on his ministry and campaigning for President Ruto's development agenda, Malala and Muhanda maintained a unified stance, telling mourners they must unite to defeat the incumbent.

Speculation is now rife about the exact structure of a potential Malala-Muhanda alliance.

Malala had previously fueled these rumours by posting a photo alongside Higher Education Principal Secretary Beatrice Inyangala, captioned with a note that their dream of ascending to county leadership remains valid.

With Inyangala also tactfully campaigning for the top seat, and Muhanda maintaining that "nothing will stop her" from running, residents are left wondering who will agree to be whose deputy.

Local observers opine that Oparanya is pulling the strings behind the scenes due to his own bitter fallout with Governor Barasa, a man Oparanya acknowledges he helped get elected against Malala in the fiercely contested 2022 polls.

In that election, Barasa ran on an ODM ticket while Malala ran on an ANC ticket, with Barasa clinching the seat by a razor-thin margin.

Breaking his silence on Monday during a tour of Matungu, a visibly furious Governor Barasa did not mince his words, launching a direct and scathing attack on his predecessor.

"I want to tell that man (Oparanya), who was the governor, that I am going to defeat him with his project, whether they unite together or not," Barasa fired.

"Oparanya started by fronting Khwisero MP Christopher Aseka and it flopped. He went ahead and tried Ms Muhanda, and he has realised it is failing. Now, he is trying the drama king Malala, and I want to assure him that I am going to defeat them. Oparanya and his project should know that this is a new and different Barasa from the one of 2022."

Barasa declared that he would remain focused on collaborating with President Ruto to deliver key flagship projects, including the completion of Bukhungu Stadium and the Kakamega Level Six Hospital, which he insists will guarantee him a second term.

Senator Boni Khalwale has firmly dismissed Malala's calls for a single, unified opposition candidate, maintaining that he, too, will be on the ballot for the governor's seat in 2027.

Ultimately, time will tell whether Malala is playing a double game, whether he is genuinely anchored in the United Opposition with Gachagua, or has secretly crossed the political divide to align with President Ruto.