Will 1991 Saba Saba strategy gain traction in today's politics?

Will the countrywide civil disobedience protests spearheaded by Azimio la Umoja One Kenya expected to start next Friday on Saba Saba day at the Kamukunji grounds in Nairobi live up to its billing?

Azimio leader Raila Odinga and his allies told a rally at the historic venue this week that countrywide civil disobedience comparable to the 1991 multi-party democracy agitation unrest against President Daniel arap Moi’s Kanu government is in the offing.

“Unlike what you have been seeing, this is going to be civil disobedience and we be everywhere including villages where Kenyans are suffering because of the Kenya Kwanza taxation,” said former Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah Kioni of Jubilee party.

But can Azimio’s call for civil disobedience create a similar wave of countrywide protests as witnessed in the country 31 years ago when senior opposition leaders like Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Masinde Muliro, Martin Shikuku, Kenneth Matiba and Charles Rubia led young Turks Raila, James Orengo, Paul Muite and Gitobu Imanyara to drive mass action?

Kenya Kwanza MPs and supporters, however, argue that protests at the time were against dictatorship and one party system misgovernance unlike now when there is a new constitution and free speech making the proposed disobedience attempt uncalled for.

But the Azimio side claims that the high cost of living and additional taxes being loaded on Kenyans are unbearable because the government continues to bulldoze its way through with little regard to protests and dissatisfaction from majority of the people.

Kenya Kwanza MPs have, meanwhile, dismissed Raila’s call for civil disobedience as “mere threats from Azimio that we are used to” and warned that security apparatus will ensure that they don’t disrupt public order. They say times have changed and the political scenario that obtained in 1991 is completely different from the realities that the country and its people are facing at the moment.

Nominated MP Tabitha Mutinda (UDA party) told The Standard on Sunday that the government will continue focusing on uplifting the living standard of Kenyans without listening to distractions from Raila and other Azimio leaders.

“We know things are tight but the government is trying to turn it around in the shortest time possible although Azimio is making all efforts to distract the attention of the executive from achieving its goals,” said Mutinda.

She asked Kenyans to reject efforts by the opposition to take the country back to the 1980s and 2007 because systems have changed and the law has to be abided to.

But Azimio leaders insist that they are fighting for the rights of all Kenyans across the country because their wellbeing is under threat from a government that is hell bend on impoverishing them.

They argued that Kenyans are hurting and also faulted some media outlets and Kenya Kwanza leaders for allegedly linking the failure or success of the passing of the Finance Bill to Raila’s failure to marshal numbers in arliament.

Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi said the Finance Act is not about Raila as was being insinuated because it’s ramification is going to affect everybody in the country and that is why they will champion for civil disobedience.

“The civil disobedience is basically what Azimio is contributing to this course. We are simply telling Kenyans that they must resist the Finance Act because opinion polls showed over 90 per cent of them rejected it,” said Osotsi.

The MP reminded Kenyans that the Azimio side fought against the Bill in Parliament while representing views of over 90 per cent of people who rejected the Bill during public participation by the Kimani Kuria led Finance committee although they lost to government sponsored side.

The Azimio side is now arguing that the voice of the people will only be heard through public protests because the committee ignored their input, thus questioning the effectiveness of the so called public participation.

The opposition side is also getting ready for another battle over the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) selection panel which could muddle the waters further after Kenya Kwanza gave their team one-week ultimatum to resume talks.

The bipartisan co-chair George Murugara told the Azimio side to resume the talks by next Tuesday but Raila and former Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa told the Kamukunji rally that they had withdrawn their team.

The Azimio MPs now claim they are aware the Kenya Kwanza side has already planned to use numbers in Parliament to push through their own commissioners just like they did with the Finance Bill and then allegedly embark on other far reaching amendments of the Constitution.

“They are laying the ground to push through their won commissioners but we know Kenyans will rise up through the countrywide civil disobedience on their own volition to defends their rights,” said Osotsi.

The Azimio side may however soon face another hurdle if a Bill proposed by a Kenya Kwanza MP Geoffrey Ruku that is intended to regulate demonstrations sails through Parliament.

The Mbeere North legislator has already admitted that the Bill is informed by the recent opposition led anti-government demonstrations he claims led to destruction, looting and loss of lives. As proposed, it is aimed at giving police more leverage in quelling the civil disobedience that Azimio is planning and other demonstrations that may take place against the government or any other course.

 “We do not want an economy where in case there are demonstrations, everything comes to a standstill, scaring away investors and threatening Kenya’s economic well-being,” says Ruku.

The Bill may however face some opposition from the Kenya Kwanza side if sentiments from MPs like Gideon Kimaiyo (Keiyo South) are put into considerations.

“I don’t support this. The right to picket or demonstration is guaranteed by the Constitution. We should not make some laws because it favours you,” reacted Kimaiyo on Twitter after Ruku went public.

Political analyst Hesborn Owilla argues that Azimio’s call for civil disobedience could be about harnessing the sentiments of the majority of Kenyans whose aspirations were not captured when the Finance Bill was passed in the National Assembly.

Issues raised by the opposition against the Act were supported by teacher unions, religious leaders, employee and employer representatives and many others Kenyans who will be financially hit by the law.

Former cabinet minister Kipruto arap Kirwa is equally concerned that public participation has become a public relations exercise which makes very little sense as witnessed in the recent past.

“If I was to reflect without being nostalgic to the regime of President Daniel arap Moi, I can say he was better in listening to the pulse of the nation, because he could use the likes of Mulu Mutsya, Shariff Nassir, Kariuki Chotara, Kimani Kihika and Ezekiel Bargentuny to start public debate on contentious issues,” said Kirwa.

The late president could then allegedly listen and follow the public discourse and at the end come up with a position that a majority of the public could agree without creating division among Kenyans.

He supported calls by the opposition for a leaner accountable government that can minimize expenditure in public offices instead of getting more money from Kenyans to fund the extravagance and opulence that is currently taking place in government.

“There is a lot we can clean to lessen the wage bill because we have workers at both national and county level who are doing nothing to improve the wellbeing of this nation,” added Kirwa.

Other leaders like Prof Margaret Kamar have called for patience among Kenyans because there is a chance that the suspended bipartisan talkwill resume.

She said it is too soon to write off the talks although Raila says they have withdrawn the Azimio team and expressed hope all contentious issues can be agreed upon.

“I will patiently wait for next week before I make comments on it because even us in Senate are also going to discuss the issues,” said the nominated Jubilee MP.

The Azimio side is however determined to go ahead with civil disobedience which they say is the only avenue and language available now in dealing with Kenya Kwanza despite the fear of violent confrontations and disorder expressed by the likes of Ruku.

Osotsi says violence witnessed during demonstration is always created by those supporting the State as witnessed recently during maandamano, when goons were allegedly hired to create chaos and destroy people property to blame Azimio.

“You saw police using violence and teargas against peaceful protesters, knowing very well that the public will react in response, yet that is another violation of the law because people must express their right to freedom of assembly, association and free speech,” says the MP.

They are now ready for whatever response the government will have for their protests because the opposition has experienced it all in the past as Raila said on Tuesday.

“They arrested Kenneth Matiba, Charles Rubia and myself and detained us at Kamiti prison before the Saba Saba rally in 1991 but other leaders and Kenyans led the demonstrations across the country which led to the death of over 50 killed by police,” said Raila.

In the absence of the three leaders, the late Shikuku, who was pictured in Nairobi streets sitting in the roof a pick-up truck in between two horn speakers with, among others, current Siaya Governor James Orengo took charge of the protests as Muliro led another team that included lawyer Muite.